FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Dec. 31, 2015
|
Away team
|
MIL
|
MIN
|
GS
|
LAC
|
PHX
|
POR
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
23%
|
19%
|
68%
|
52%
|
8%
|
35%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
77%
|
81%
|
32%
|
48%
|
92%
|
65%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
IND
|
DET
|
HOU
|
NO
|
OKC
|
UTA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1787 | 1784 |
-27
|  | Warriors29-2 | West | 69-13 | +10.8 | >99% | 77% | 35% |
| 1743 | 1753 |
-5
|  | Spurs28-6 | West | 64-18 | +10.3 | >99% | 22% | 25% |
| 1639 | 1688 |
-27
|  | Cavaliers21-9 | East | 58-24 | +6.2 | >99% | 73% | 15% |
| 1635 | 1685 |
-19
|  | Thunder22-10 | West | 56-26 | +7.0 | >99% | 1% | 9% |
| 1621 | 1633 |
+34
|  | Clippers20-13 | West | 52-30 | +3.8 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1561 | 1576 |
+9
|  | Raptors20-13 | East | 50-32 | +3.5 | 94% | 10% | 2% |
| 1552 | 1573 |
-14
|  | Celtics18-14 | East | 48-34 | +3.4 | 89% | 4% | 2% |
| 1564 | 1557 |
+11
|  | Hawks21-13 | East | 48-34 | +2.1 | 92% | 5% | 2% |
| 1577 | 1557 |
+41
|  | Mavericks19-13 | West | 46-36 | +1.4 | 93% | <1% | <1% |
| 1565 | 1547 |
+12
|  | Pacers18-13 | East | 47-35 | +2.7 | 83% | 3% | 1% |
| 1547 | 1543 |
+27
|  | Bulls18-12 | East | 46-36 | +1.2 | 78% | 2% | 1% |
| 1511 | 1526 |
+3
|  | Grizzlies18-16 | West | 44-38 | -0.7 | 85% | <1% | <1% |
| 1492 | 1525 |
-4
|  | Magic19-13 | East | 44-38 | +1.0 | 67% | <1% | <1% |
| 1503 | 1519 |
+0
|  | Hornets17-14 | East | 43-39 | +1.4 | 65% | <1% | <1% |
| 1516 | 1516 |
-6
|  | Rockets16-17 | West | 39-43 | -1.2 | 54% | <1% | <1% |
| 1518 | 1502 |
+44
|  | Trail Blazers14-20 | West | 38-44 | -0.3 | 50% | <1% | <1% |
| 1500 | 1489 |
-21
|  | Pistons17-15 | East | 42-40 | +0.2 | 47% | <1% | <1% |
| 1486 | 1486 |
-3
|  | Heat18-13 | East | 41-41 | -0.5 | 43% | <1% | <1% |
| 1465 | 1483 |
-9
|  | Pelicans10-21 | West | 36-46 | -1.8 | 31% | <1% | <1% |
| 1488 | 1480 |
-7
|  | Wizards14-16 | East | 39-43 | -1.4 | 35% | <1% | <1% |
| 1489 | 1479 |
-22
|  | Jazz13-17 | West | 39-43 | -0.3 | 56% | <1% | <1% |
| 1432 | 1452 |
-28
|  | Kings12-20 | West | 33-49 | -2.8 | 15% | <1% | <1% |
| 1418 | 1412 |
-27
|  | Suns12-22 | West | 31-51 | -3.2 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1398 | 1396 |
+6
|  | Knicks15-18 | East | 33-49 | -3.0 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1402 | 1393 |
-18
|  | Bucks12-21 | East | 30-52 | -4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1380 | 1381 |
+3
|  | Timberwolves12-20 | West | 29-53 | -4.2 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1412 | 1377 |
-10
|  | Nuggets12-21 | West | 31-51 | -4.3 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1378 | 1302 |
+7
|  | Nets9-23 | East | 23-59 | -6.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1311 | 1302 |
+16
|  | Lakers6-27 | West | 19-63 | -8.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1249 | 1233 |
+37
|  | 76ers3-31 | East | 13-69 | -10.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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