FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Dec. 25, 2015
|
Away team
|
NO
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SA
|
LAC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
37%
|
16%
|
24%
|
70%
|
78%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
63%
|
84%
|
76%
|
30%
|
22%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
MIA
|
OKC
|
GS
|
HOU
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1817 | 1814 |
+6
|  | Warriors28-1 | West | 71-11 | +11.9 | >99% | 88% | 43% |
| 1738 | 1749 |
+2
|  | Spurs25-6 | West | 63-19 | +10.1 | >99% | 11% | 19% |
| 1658 | 1711 |
-1
|  | Cavaliers19-8 | East | 59-23 | +7.2 | >99% | 77% | 18% |
| 1631 | 1683 |
-11
|  | Thunder20-10 | West | 56-26 | +7.1 | >99% | <1% | 8% |
| 1592 | 1603 |
-13
|  | Clippers17-13 | West | 48-34 | +2.7 | 95% | <1% | 1% |
| 1564 | 1588 |
+3
|  | Celtics16-13 | East | 49-33 | +4.0 | 91% | 6% | 2% |
| 1550 | 1567 |
+1
|  | Raptors18-12 | East | 49-33 | +3.1 | 89% | 6% | 2% |
| 1554 | 1546 |
+31
|  | Hawks19-12 | East | 47-35 | +1.6 | 85% | 4% | <1% |
| 1543 | 1537 |
-20
|  | Bulls16-11 | East | 45-37 | +1.0 | 70% | 1% | <1% |
| 1554 | 1535 |
-19
|  | Pacers16-12 | East | 45-37 | +2.2 | 73% | 2% | 1% |
| 1530 | 1531 |
+22
|  | Rockets16-15 | West | 41-41 | -0.7 | 67% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1529 |
+12
|  | Magic17-12 | East | 45-37 | +1.3 | 71% | 1% | <1% |
| 1507 | 1523 |
+0
|  | Grizzlies16-15 | West | 43-39 | -0.9 | 79% | <1% | <1% |
| 1502 | 1520 |
-30
|  | Hornets15-13 | East | 43-39 | +1.5 | 64% | <1% | <1% |
| 1537 | 1517 |
+7
|  | Mavericks16-13 | West | 42-40 | +0.0 | 75% | <1% | <1% |
| 1522 | 1510 |
+11
|  | Pistons17-13 | East | 44-38 | +0.9 | 64% | <1% | <1% |
| 1510 | 1502 |
+8
|  | Jazz12-15 | West | 41-41 | +0.6 | 71% | <1% | <1% |
| 1496 | 1495 |
-11
|  | Heat17-11 | East | 41-41 | -0.3 | 48% | <1% | <1% |
| 1469 | 1487 |
+7
|  | Pelicans9-20 | West | 36-46 | -1.5 | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| 1493 | 1487 |
+23
|  | Wizards13-14 | East | 40-42 | -1.2 | 37% | <1% | <1% |
| 1457 | 1480 |
+14
|  | Kings12-17 | West | 37-45 | -1.7 | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| 1479 | 1458 |
-29
|  | Trail Blazers11-20 | West | 34-48 | -1.8 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 1445 | 1438 |
-28
|  | Suns12-19 | West | 33-49 | -2.3 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 1423 | 1412 |
+15
|  | Bucks12-18 | East | 32-50 | -4.3 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1393 | 1390 |
+14
|  | Knicks14-16 | East | 33-49 | -3.2 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1425 | 1387 |
-7
|  | Nuggets12-17 | West | 32-50 | -4.1 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 1376 | 1377 |
+13
|  | Timberwolves11-18 | West | 28-54 | -4.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 1379 | 1295 |
-4
|  | Nets8-21 | East | 22-60 | -7.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1293 | 1282 |
+3
|  | Lakers5-25 | West | 18-64 | -9.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1214 | 1196 |
-15
|  | 76ers1-30 | East | 10-72 | -11.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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