FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Dec. 29,2015
|
Away team
|
DET
|
ATL
|
MIA
|
MIL
|
CLE
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
54%
|
33%
|
27%
|
7%
|
66%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
46%
|
67%
|
73%
|
93%
|
34%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
NY
|
HOU
|
MEM
|
OKC
|
DEN
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1818 | 1816 |
+7
|  | Warriors29-1 | West | 71-11 | +12.0 | >99% | 87% | 46% |
| 1741 | 1751 |
-2
|  | Spurs27-6 | West | 64-18 | +10.1 | >99% | 12% | 20% |
| 1633 | 1685 |
-16
|  | Thunder21-10 | West | 56-26 | +7.0 | >99% | <1% | 7% |
| 1634 | 1683 |
-31
|  | Cavaliers20-9 | East | 58-24 | +6.1 | >99% | 67% | 12% |
| 1614 | 1626 |
+27
|  | Clippers19-13 | West | 50-32 | +3.5 | 99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1576 | 1598 |
+26
|  | Celtics18-13 | East | 51-31 | +4.4 | 95% | 11% | 3% |
| 1559 | 1574 |
+10
|  | Raptors19-13 | East | 49-33 | +3.4 | 91% | 9% | 2% |
| 1569 | 1551 |
+8
|  | Pacers18-12 | East | 47-35 | +2.9 | 83% | 4% | 1% |
| 1554 | 1546 |
+3
|  | Hawks20-13 | East | 47-35 | +1.7 | 85% | 4% | 1% |
| 1543 | 1539 |
+23
|  | Bulls17-12 | East | 45-37 | +1.1 | 71% | 2% | <1% |
| 1526 | 1527 |
+2
|  | Rockets16-16 | West | 40-42 | -0.8 | 63% | <1% | <1% |
| 1509 | 1526 |
-8
|  | Hornets17-13 | East | 44-38 | +1.7 | 70% | 2% | <1% |
| 1546 | 1526 |
+9
|  | Mavericks18-13 | West | 44-38 | +0.3 | 82% | <1% | <1% |
| 1489 | 1523 |
-2
|  | Magic18-13 | East | 44-38 | +1.0 | 65% | 1% | <1% |
| 1505 | 1521 |
-4
|  | Grizzlies17-16 | West | 43-39 | -0.8 | 80% | <1% | <1% |
| 1512 | 1502 |
-7
|  | Pistons17-14 | East | 43-39 | +0.6 | 53% | <1% | <1% |
| 1514 | 1499 |
+28
|  | Trail Blazers13-20 | West | 37-45 | -0.4 | 43% | <1% | <1% |
| 1504 | 1494 |
-10
|  | Jazz13-16 | West | 40-42 | +0.2 | 63% | <1% | <1% |
| 1492 | 1491 |
-4
|  | Heat18-12 | East | 41-41 | -0.5 | 45% | <1% | <1% |
| 1465 | 1483 |
+4
|  | Pelicans10-21 | West | 36-46 | -1.7 | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1482 |
+2
|  | Wizards14-15 | East | 40-42 | -1.4 | 36% | <1% | <1% |
| 1448 | 1469 |
-3
|  | Kings12-19 | West | 35-47 | -2.1 | 23% | <1% | <1% |
| 1421 | 1414 |
-42
|  | Suns12-21 | West | 31-51 | -3.1 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1404 | 1394 |
-15
|  | Bucks12-20 | East | 30-52 | -5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1421 | 1384 |
+2
|  | Nuggets12-19 | West | 32-50 | -4.1 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 1386 | 1383 |
-8
|  | Knicks14-18 | East | 32-50 | -3.6 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1366 | 1366 |
-17
|  | Timberwolves11-20 | West | 27-55 | -4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1381 | 1304 |
+6
|  | Nets9-22 | East | 23-59 | -6.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1287 | 1277 |
+0
|  | Lakers5-27 | West | 17-65 | -9.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1232 | 1216 |
+13
|  | 76ers2-31 | East | 12-70 | -11.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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