FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 8, 2016
|
Away team
|
TOR
|
ORL
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DEN
|
IND
|
NY
|
MIA
|
GS
|
OKC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
53%
|
62%
|
81%
|
55%
|
19%
|
47%
|
8%
|
50%
|
78%
|
85%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
47%
|
38%
|
19%
|
45%
|
81%
|
53%
|
92%
|
50%
|
22%
|
15%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
WSH
|
BKN
|
MIN
|
MIL
|
MEM
|
NO
|
SA
|
PHX
|
POR
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1802 | 1800 |
+12
|  | Warriors34-2 | West | 71-11 | +11.2 | >99% | 81% | 39% |
| 1758 | 1767 |
+13
|  | Spurs32-6 | West | 65-17 | +10.8 | >99% | 18% | 26% |
| 1666 | 1708 |
+20
|  | Cavaliers25-9 | East | 60-22 | +7.2 | >99% | 86% | 16% |
| 1633 | 1674 |
-12
|  | Thunder26-11 | West | 56-26 | +6.6 | >99% | <1% | 6% |
| 1639 | 1651 |
+10
|  | Clippers23-13 | West | 53-29 | +4.5 | >99% | <1% | 4% |
| 1573 | 1585 |
+9
|  | Raptors23-15 | East | 51-31 | +3.7 | 97% | 7% | 2% |
| 1570 | 1564 |
+22
|  | Bulls22-12 | East | 48-34 | +2.0 | 89% | 3% | 1% |
| 1571 | 1556 |
+21
|  | Pacers21-15 | East | 47-35 | +3.0 | 88% | 2% | <1% |
| 1532 | 1548 |
-25
|  | Celtics19-17 | East | 45-37 | +2.5 | 76% | <1% | 1% |
| 1551 | 1539 |
-18
|  | Mavericks21-16 | West | 44-38 | +0.6 | 91% | <1% | <1% |
| 1542 | 1535 |
-23
|  | Hawks22-15 | East | 46-36 | +1.4 | 84% | 1% | 1% |
| 1521 | 1532 |
+6
|  | Grizzlies20-18 | West | 44-38 | -0.5 | 91% | <1% | <1% |
| 1524 | 1522 |
+36
|  | Heat22-14 | East | 44-38 | +0.7 | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| 1522 | 1521 |
+9
|  | Rockets18-19 | West | 40-42 | -0.9 | 68% | <1% | <1% |
| 1523 | 1515 |
+19
|  | Pistons20-16 | East | 44-38 | +1.2 | 67% | <1% | <1% |
| 1473 | 1492 |
-27
|  | Hornets17-18 | East | 40-42 | +0.5 | 45% | <1% | <1% |
| 1464 | 1490 |
-34
|  | Magic20-17 | East | 41-41 | -0.5 | 44% | <1% | <1% |
| 1470 | 1490 |
+38
|  | Kings15-21 | West | 37-45 | -1.3 | 36% | <1% | <1% |
| 1487 | 1477 |
-10
|  | Jazz15-20 | West | 39-43 | -0.4 | 59% | <1% | <1% |
| 1483 | 1472 |
-21
|  | Trail Blazers15-24 | West | 35-47 | -1.4 | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 1456 | 1467 |
-9
|  | Pelicans11-24 | West | 34-48 | -2.3 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1457 | 1453 |
-27
|  | Wizards15-19 | East | 37-45 | -2.3 | 17% | <1% | <1% |
| 1440 | 1439 |
+43
|  | Knicks18-20 | East | 37-45 | -1.6 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1422 | 1413 |
+8
|  | Bucks15-23 | East | 33-49 | -4.3 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1390 | 1389 |
-22
|  | Suns13-26 | West | 29-53 | -4.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1408 | 1375 |
-2
|  | Nuggets13-24 | West | 30-52 | -4.2 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1335 | 1335 |
-40
|  | Timberwolves12-25 | West | 24-58 | -5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1324 | 1314 |
+12
|  | Lakers8-30 | West | 20-62 | -8.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1363 | 1298 |
-4
|  | Nets10-26 | East | 23-59 | -7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1243 | 1230 |
-3
|  | 76ers4-34 | East | 13-69 | -10.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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