FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 13,2016
Away team
|
ATL
|
MIL
|
NY
|
DAL
|
IND
|
MIN
|
GS
|
NO
|
UTA
|
MIA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities
|
46%
|
23%
|
53%
|
21%
|
39%
|
14%
|
84%
|
28%
|
38%
|
20%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
54%
|
77%
|
47%
|
79%
|
61%
|
86%
|
16%
|
72%
|
62%
|
80%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
Home team
|
CHA
|
WSH
|
BKN
|
OKC
|
BOS
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
SAC
|
POR
|
LAC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1807 | 1807 |
+13
|  | Warriors36-2 | West | 71-11 | +11.3 | >99% | 81% | 39% |
| 1768 | 1777 |
+14
|  | Spurs34-6 | West | 66-16 | +11.2 | >99% | 19% | 26% |
| 1673 | 1713 |
+16
|  | Cavaliers27-9 | East | 61-21 | +7.3 | >99% | 90% | 18% |
| 1627 | 1667 |
-1
|  | Thunder27-12 | West | 55-27 | +6.2 | >99% | <1% | 5% |
| 1644 | 1657 |
+15
|  | Clippers25-13 | West | 54-28 | +4.6 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1577 | 1590 |
+21
|  | Raptors24-15 | East | 51-31 | +3.9 | 98% | 7% | 2% |
| 1570 | 1556 |
+19
|  | Pacers22-16 | East | 47-35 | +3.2 | 89% | 1% | 1% |
| 1547 | 1546 |
+30
|  | Rockets20-19 | West | 42-40 | -0.2 | 80% | <1% | <1% |
| 1552 | 1545 |
+19
|  | Hawks23-15 | East | 47-35 | +1.7 | 89% | 1% | <1% |
| 1551 | 1540 |
+10
|  | Mavericks22-17 | West | 44-38 | +0.7 | 90% | <1% | <1% |
| 1520 | 1536 |
-28
|  | Celtics19-19 | East | 43-39 | +2.1 | 66% | <1% | <1% |
| 1529 | 1525 |
-35
|  | Bulls22-15 | East | 45-37 | +0.6 | 73% | <1% | <1% |
| 1505 | 1516 |
-18
|  | Grizzlies21-19 | West | 43-39 | -1.1 | 85% | <1% | <1% |
| 1512 | 1513 |
-19
|  | Heat22-16 | East | 43-39 | +0.5 | 67% | <1% | <1% |
| 1521 | 1510 |
+7
|  | Pistons21-17 | East | 43-39 | +1.0 | 65% | <1% | <1% |
| 1506 | 1495 |
+11
|  | Jazz17-20 | West | 40-42 | +0.2 | 66% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1487 |
+21
|  | Wizards17-19 | East | 40-42 | -1.2 | 42% | <1% | <1% |
| 1464 | 1484 |
-18
|  | Hornets17-20 | East | 39-43 | +0.2 | 36% | <1% | <1% |
| 1466 | 1484 |
-4
|  | Kings15-22 | West | 36-46 | -1.4 | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1482 |
-5
|  | Trail Blazers16-24 | West | 37-45 | -1.1 | 33% | <1% | <1% |
| 1453 | 1479 |
-18
|  | Magic20-18 | East | 40-42 | -0.7 | 39% | <1% | <1% |
| 1447 | 1457 |
-31
|  | Pelicans11-26 | West | 33-49 | -2.5 | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 1454 | 1454 |
+33
|  | Knicks20-20 | East | 39-43 | -1.1 | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| 1422 | 1412 |
+4
|  | Bucks16-24 | East | 33-49 | -4.3 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1386 | 1384 |
-4
|  | Suns13-27 | West | 28-54 | -4.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1413 | 1379 |
+10
|  | Nuggets14-24 | West | 31-51 | -4.1 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1327 | 1327 |
-22
|  | Timberwolves12-27 | West | 23-59 | -6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1323 | 1311 |
-6
|  | Lakers9-31 | West | 20-62 | -8.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1354 | 1293 |
-18
|  | Nets10-28 | East | 22-60 | -7.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1237 | 1224 |
-15
|  | 76ers4-36 | East | 13-69 | -10.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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