FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 21, 2016
|
Away team
|
DET
|
LAC
|
MEM
|
ATL
|
SA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
37%
|
34%
|
50%
|
42%
|
86%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
63%
|
66%
|
50%
|
58%
|
14%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
NO
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
SAC
|
PHX
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1807 | 1810 |
+13
|  | Warriors39-4 | West | 71-11 | +11.6 | >99% | 75% | 38% |
| 1776 | 1784 |
+7
|  | Spurs36-6 | West | 67-15 | +11.6 | >99% | 25% | 30% |
| 1662 | 1697 |
-17
|  | Cavaliers29-11 | East | 60-22 | +6.8 | >99% | 88% | 14% |
| 1652 | 1688 |
+15
|  | Thunder32-12 | West | 57-25 | +7.0 | >99% | <1% | 7% |
| 1634 | 1646 |
-15
|  | Clippers27-14 | West | 53-29 | +4.2 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1587 | 1599 |
+9
|  | Raptors27-15 | East | 53-29 | +4.1 | >99% | 11% | 3% |
| 1556 | 1547 |
+13
|  | Mavericks25-19 | West | 46-36 | +0.6 | 95% | <1% | <1% |
| 1531 | 1543 |
+0
|  | Celtics22-21 | East | 44-38 | +2.4 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1547 | 1541 |
+12
|  | Hawks26-17 | East | 47-35 | +1.7 | 93% | <1% | <1% |
| 1543 | 1532 |
+22
|  | Pistons23-19 | East | 45-37 | +1.7 | 79% | <1% | <1% |
| 1539 | 1527 |
-22
|  | Pacers23-19 | East | 44-38 | +2.2 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1516 | 1526 |
+10
|  | Grizzlies24-19 | West | 44-38 | -1.0 | 92% | <1% | <1% |
| 1527 | 1525 |
-22
|  | Rockets22-22 | West | 40-42 | -0.9 | 68% | <1% | <1% |
| 1526 | 1523 |
-2
|  | Bulls24-17 | East | 45-37 | +0.4 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1487 | 1501 |
+37
|  | Kings18-23 | West | 38-44 | -0.9 | 44% | <1% | <1% |
| 1504 | 1498 |
+8
|  | Wizards20-21 | East | 40-42 | -0.9 | 47% | <1% | <1% |
| 1470 | 1484 |
+7
|  | Pelicans14-27 | West | 35-47 | -1.7 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1477 | 1482 |
-27
|  | Heat23-20 | East | 41-41 | -0.6 | 52% | <1% | <1% |
| 1484 | 1476 |
-15
|  | Trail Blazers19-26 | West | 36-46 | -1.3 | 33% | <1% | <1% |
| 1460 | 1476 |
-24
|  | Hornets19-23 | East | 39-43 | +0.1 | 33% | <1% | <1% |
| 1483 | 1472 |
-14
|  | Jazz18-24 | West | 37-45 | -0.4 | 42% | <1% | <1% |
| 1467 | 1459 |
+49
|  | Bucks19-25 | East | 37-45 | -2.8 | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 1451 | 1450 |
+5
|  | Knicks22-22 | East | 39-43 | -1.2 | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 1422 | 1445 |
-33
|  | Magic20-21 | East | 36-46 | -1.8 | 16% | <1% | <1% |
| 1419 | 1385 |
-5
|  | Nuggets16-26 | West | 32-50 | -3.8 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1359 | 1357 |
-27
|  | Suns13-30 | West | 26-56 | -5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1334 | 1334 |
+9
|  | Timberwolves13-31 | West | 23-59 | -5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1295 | 1288 |
-23
|  | Lakers9-35 | West | 19-63 | -9.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1339 | 1284 |
-17
|  | Nets11-32 | East | 21-61 | -7.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1286 | 1272 |
+47
|  | 76ers6-38 | East | 16-66 | -9.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
No comments:
Post a Comment