FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 31, 2016
|
Away team
|
CHI
|
ATL
|
BOS
|
PHX
|
GS
|
MIN
|
CHA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
24%
|
41%
|
60%
|
15%
|
82%
|
19%
|
65%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
76%
|
59%
|
40%
|
85%
|
18%
|
81%
|
35%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
ORL
|
DAL
|
NY
|
POR
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1830 | 1833 |
+21
|  | Warriors44-4 | West | 72-10 | +12.3 | >99% | 92% | 48% |
| 1760 | 1767 |
-24
|  | Spurs39-8 | West | 65-17 | +11.2 | >99% | 8% | 22% |
| 1670 | 1700 |
+25
|  | Cavaliers34-12 | East | 61-21 | +6.8 | >99% | 85% | 13% |
| 1648 | 1678 |
-14
|  | Thunder36-13 | West | 57-25 | +6.5 | >99% | <1% | 5% |
| 1649 | 1661 |
+6
|  | Clippers32-16 | West | 55-27 | +4.7 | >99% | <1% | 4% |
| 1617 | 1627 |
+21
|  | Raptors32-15 | East | 55-27 | +4.8 | >99% | 15% | 4% |
| 1567 | 1580 |
+31
|  | Celtics27-22 | East | 46-36 | +3.5 | 95% | <1% | <1% |
| 1548 | 1540 |
-2
|  | Mavericks28-22 | West | 45-37 | +0.3 | 95% | <1% | <1% |
| 1526 | 1536 |
+15
|  | Grizzlies28-20 | West | 46-36 | -0.8 | 96% | <1% | <1% |
| 1534 | 1535 |
-10
|  | Bulls26-20 | East | 45-37 | +0.8 | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 1528 | 1528 |
+0
|  | Rockets25-25 | West | 41-41 | -1.0 | 69% | <1% | <1% |
| 1537 | 1525 |
+7
|  | Pacers25-22 | East | 44-38 | +2.2 | 80% | <1% | <1% |
| 1522 | 1517 |
+0
|  | Pistons25-23 | East | 43-39 | +1.4 | 74% | <1% | <1% |
| 1519 | 1515 |
-14
|  | Hawks27-22 | East | 44-38 | +1.0 | 84% | <1% | <1% |
| 1508 | 1511 |
+35
|  | Heat27-21 | East | 44-38 | +0.1 | 82% | <1% | <1% |
| 1495 | 1502 |
+2
|  | Pelicans18-28 | West | 36-46 | -1.3 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 1507 | 1500 |
+20
|  | Trail Blazers23-26 | West | 38-44 | -0.7 | 45% | <1% | <1% |
| 1508 | 1493 |
+9
|  | Jazz21-25 | West | 38-44 | +0.4 | 48% | <1% | <1% |
| 1475 | 1488 |
-24
|  | Kings20-27 | West | 37-45 | -1.3 | 23% | <1% | <1% |
| 1470 | 1484 |
-7
|  | Hornets23-25 | East | 40-42 | +0.2 | 47% | <1% | <1% |
| 1471 | 1462 |
-35
|  | Wizards21-24 | East | 38-44 | -2.0 | 26% | <1% | <1% |
| 1443 | 1439 |
-10
|  | Bucks20-29 | East | 35-47 | -3.5 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1411 | 1433 |
-4
|  | Magic21-25 | East | 35-47 | -2.1 | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| 1424 | 1424 |
-2
|  | Knicks23-27 | East | 36-46 | -2.1 | 13% | <1% | <1% |
| 1414 | 1382 |
-5
|  | Nuggets18-30 | West | 32-50 | -3.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1339 | 1336 |
-24
|  | Suns14-35 | West | 24-58 | -6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1335 | 1336 |
-8
|  | Timberwolves14-35 | West | 23-59 | -5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1334 | 1288 |
+16
|  | Nets12-36 | East | 22-60 | -7.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1284 | 1272 |
+0
|  | 76ers7-41 | East | 16-66 | -9.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1265 | 1259 |
-23
|  | Lakers9-41 | West | 17-65 | -10.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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