FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 26, 2016
|
Away team
|
LAC
|
PHX
|
MIA
|
OKC
|
WSH
|
ORL
|
SAC
|
DAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
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|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
55%
|
49%
|
57%
|
71%
|
16%
|
29%
|
34%
|
71%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
45%
|
51%
|
43%
|
29%
|
84%
|
71%
|
66%
|
29%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
IND
|
PHI
|
BKN
|
NY
|
TOR
|
MIL
|
POR
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1822 | 1825 |
+26
|  | Warriors41-4 | West | 72-10 | +12.2 | >99% | 85% | 48% |
| 1769 | 1777 |
-7
|  | Spurs38-7 | West | 66-16 | +11.4 | >99% | 15% | 26% |
| 1646 | 1676 |
-18
|  | Cavaliers31-12 | East | 59-23 | +6.0 | >99% | 76% | 9% |
| 1637 | 1669 |
-11
|  | Thunder33-13 | West | 56-26 | +6.4 | >99% | <1% | 4% |
| 1630 | 1643 |
-3
|  | Clippers28-16 | West | 53-29 | +4.2 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1606 | 1618 |
+23
|  | Raptors29-15 | East | 54-28 | +4.7 | >99% | 21% | 4% |
| 1569 | 1581 |
+34
|  | Celtics25-21 | East | 47-35 | +3.6 | 94% | <1% | 2% |
| 1543 | 1542 |
+3
|  | Rockets25-22 | West | 42-40 | -0.5 | 83% | <1% | <1% |
| 1547 | 1542 |
+10
|  | Hawks27-19 | East | 46-36 | +1.9 | 93% | 1% | <1% |
| 1543 | 1534 |
-11
|  | Mavericks25-21 | West | 44-38 | +0.3 | 91% | <1% | <1% |
| 1532 | 1534 |
+0
|  | Bulls25-19 | East | 45-37 | +0.7 | 83% | <1% | <1% |
| 1531 | 1524 |
+6
|  | Pistons24-21 | East | 44-38 | +1.5 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1514 | 1524 |
-2
|  | Grizzlies26-20 | West | 45-37 | -1.1 | 93% | <1% | <1% |
| 1528 | 1518 |
-4
|  | Pacers23-21 | East | 44-38 | +2.0 | 74% | <1% | <1% |
| 1494 | 1506 |
+16
|  | Kings20-24 | West | 39-43 | -0.8 | 44% | <1% | <1% |
| 1481 | 1497 |
+17
|  | Hornets22-23 | East | 41-41 | +0.8 | 57% | <1% | <1% |
| 1487 | 1494 |
+17
|  | Pelicans16-28 | West | 35-47 | -1.3 | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 1483 | 1487 |
-22
|  | Heat24-21 | East | 41-41 | -0.6 | 58% | <1% | <1% |
| 1488 | 1479 |
-6
|  | Trail Blazers20-26 | West | 37-45 | -1.2 | 31% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1477 |
-2
|  | Jazz19-25 | West | 37-45 | -0.2 | 38% | <1% | <1% |
| 1480 | 1473 |
-17
|  | Wizards20-22 | East | 39-43 | -1.7 | 31% | <1% | <1% |
| 1454 | 1449 |
+9
|  | Bucks19-27 | East | 36-46 | -3.1 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 1411 | 1434 |
-34
|  | Magic20-23 | East | 35-47 | -2.1 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1428 | 1426 |
-17
|  | Knicks22-24 | East | 37-45 | -2.1 | 15% | <1% | <1% |
| 1409 | 1374 |
-16
|  | Nuggets17-28 | West | 31-51 | -4.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1362 | 1360 |
-2
|  | Suns14-31 | West | 26-56 | -5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1343 | 1343 |
+1
|  | Timberwolves14-32 | West | 24-58 | -5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1344 | 1296 |
+9
|  | Nets12-33 | East | 22-60 | -7.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1289 | 1283 |
-16
|  | Lakers9-37 | West | 18-64 | -9.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1277 | 1265 |
+15
|  | 76ers6-39 | East | 15-67 | -9.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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