FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 4, 2016
|
Away team
|
MIN
|
TOR
|
BOS
|
IND
|
ORL
|
SA
|
SAC
|
HOU
|
MEM
|
CHA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
57%
|
18%
|
70%
|
45%
|
39%
|
80%
|
12%
|
33%
|
46%
|
10%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
43%
|
82%
|
30%
|
55%
|
61%
|
20%
|
88%
|
67%
|
54%
|
90%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BKN
|
MIA
|
DET
|
MIL
|
OKC
|
UTA
|
POR
|
GS
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1791 | 1788 |
-26
|  | Warriors31-2 | West | 70-12 | +10.8 | >99% | 79% | 39% |
| 1747 | 1756 |
+6
|  | Spurs29-6 | West | 64-18 | +10.4 | >99% | 19% | 22% |
| 1650 | 1696 |
+11
|  | Thunder24-10 | West | 58-24 | +7.3 | >99% | 2% | 9% |
| 1645 | 1692 |
+13
|  | Cavaliers22-9 | East | 59-23 | +6.5 | >99% | 80% | 14% |
| 1629 | 1642 |
+30
|  | Clippers22-13 | West | 52-30 | +4.1 | >99% | <1% | 4% |
| 1560 | 1574 |
-7
|  | Raptors21-14 | East | 50-32 | +3.4 | 94% | 8% | 2% |
| 1540 | 1559 |
-39
|  | Celtics18-15 | East | 46-36 | +2.9 | 81% | 3% | 2% |
| 1560 | 1556 |
+24
|  | Bulls20-12 | East | 47-35 | +1.7 | 86% | 3% | 1% |
| 1558 | 1542 |
-3
|  | Pacers19-14 | East | 46-36 | +2.6 | 81% | 2% | 1% |
| 1547 | 1541 |
-10
|  | Hawks21-14 | East | 47-35 | +1.5 | 87% | 3% | 1% |
| 1543 | 1528 |
+6
|  | Mavericks19-15 | West | 44-38 | +0.4 | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 1528 | 1527 |
+18
|  | Heat20-13 | East | 44-38 | +1.0 | 71% | 1% | <1% |
| 1506 | 1521 |
+0
|  | Grizzlies18-17 | West | 43-39 | -0.8 | 83% | <1% | <1% |
| 1478 | 1511 |
-4
|  | Magic19-15 | East | 43-39 | +0.4 | 60% | <1% | <1% |
| 1510 | 1509 |
-18
|  | Rockets16-19 | West | 38-44 | -1.4 | 48% | <1% | <1% |
| 1484 | 1504 |
-21
|  | Hornets17-16 | East | 42-40 | +0.8 | 54% | <1% | <1% |
| 1516 | 1501 |
+2
|  | Trail Blazers15-21 | West | 38-44 | -0.4 | 52% | <1% | <1% |
| 1503 | 1492 |
-1
|  | Jazz15-17 | West | 40-42 | +0.0 | 69% | <1% | <1% |
| 1501 | 1489 |
-13
|  | Pistons18-16 | East | 41-41 | +0.3 | 47% | <1% | <1% |
| 1474 | 1488 |
-4
|  | Pelicans11-22 | West | 36-46 | -1.6 | 35% | <1% | <1% |
| 1472 | 1466 |
-30
|  | Wizards15-17 | East | 38-44 | -1.9 | 27% | <1% | <1% |
| 1443 | 1462 |
-9
|  | Kings13-20 | West | 34-48 | -2.3 | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1428 | 1418 |
+20
|  | Bucks14-21 | East | 33-49 | -4.1 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1408 | 1406 |
+23
|  | Knicks16-19 | East | 34-48 | -2.8 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1390 | 1387 |
-30
|  | Suns12-25 | West | 28-54 | -4.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1404 | 1370 |
-15
|  | Nuggets12-23 | West | 30-52 | -4.4 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1361 | 1361 |
-5
|  | Timberwolves12-22 | West | 27-55 | -4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1332 | 1321 |
+42
|  | Lakers8-27 | West | 21-61 | -8.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1390 | 1316 |
+30
|  | Nets10-23 | East | 24-58 | -6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1242 | 1227 |
+10
|  | 76ers3-33 | East | 13-69 | -10.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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