2015-16 NBA Predictions

By Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo” rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history

UPDATED 9:33 pm EST | Mar 9

Games on Mar. 9, 2016

Win probabilityPoint spread

Away team		HOU		MEM		NO		MIA		DET		NY		LAC		CLE		UTA		X		X		X		X		X
Pre-game win probabilities		79%		29%		24%		52%		39%		34%		35%		67%		8%		-		-		-		-		-
		21%		71%		76%		48%		61%		66%		65%		33%		92%		-		-		-		-		-
Home team		PHI		BOS		CHA		MIL		DAL		PHX		OKC		SAC		GS		X		X		X		X		X
		live		live				live		live		live

Team-By-Team Forecast

Forecast from

1783	1789	-6		Spurs54-10	West	68-14	+11.5	✓	9%	34%
1780	1784	-41		Warriors56-6	West	72-10	+10.8	✓	91%	36%
1657	1677	+0		Cavaliers44-18	East	58-24	+6.2	>99%	86%	12%
1635	1657	-2		Thunder43-20	West	55-27	+6.1	>99%	<1%	4%
1647	1647	-5		Clippers41-21	West	53-29	+4.5	>99%	<1%	4%
1602	1611	+3		Celtics38-26	East	49-33	+4.0	>99%	<1%	3%
1604	1608	-8		Raptors42-20	East	54-28	+4.1	>99%	14%	3%
1573	1572	+42		Hawks36-28	East	46-36	+2.9	97%	<1%	1%
1574	1568	-26		Trail Blazers34-31	West	43-39	+0.9	98%	—	<1%
1550	1559	+18		Hornets35-28	East	46-36	+2.3	98%	<1%	<1%
1546	1552	+8		Heat37-26	East	47-35	+1.1	99%	<1%	<1%
1537	1544	-3		Grizzlies38-25	West	47-35	-0.6	>99%	<1%	<1%
1533	1536	+12		Rockets31-32	West	41-41	-0.8	83%	—	<1%
1531	1525	+25		Pacers34-30	East	45-37	+2.1	91%	<1%	<1%
1519	1513	-1		Pistons32-31	East	42-40	+1.2	56%	<1%	<1%
1494	1494	-9		Wizards30-33	East	40-42	-1.3	22%	<1%	<1%
1505	1493	-1		Jazz29-34	West	38-44	+0.4	44%	—	<1%
1493	1489	-26		Mavericks33-31	West	40-42	-0.9	69%	—	<1%
1475	1480	+2		Bulls32-30	East	41-41	-0.9	38%	<1%	<1%
1448	1461	+2		Kings25-37	West	35-47	-1.9	4%	—	<1%
1450	1453	-25		Pelicans24-39	West	33-49	-2.7	<1%	—	<1%
1432	1431	-13		Bucks26-38	East	34-48	-3.4	<1%	<1%	<1%
1446	1418	+4		Nuggets26-38	West	33-49	-2.7	1%	—	<1%
1386	1399	-33		Magic27-36	East	33-49	-2.5	<1%	<1%	<1%
1372	1369	+10		Knicks26-39	East	32-50	-3.3	<1%	—	<1%
1346	1347	-11		Timberwolves20-45	West	25-57	-4.9	<1%	—	<1%
1346	1343	+54		Suns17-46	West	24-58	-6.4	<1%	—	<1%
1312	1308	+41		Lakers14-51	West	19-63	-8.5	<1%	—	<1%
1335	1306	+0		Nets18-46	East	23-59	-6.6	<1%	—	<1%
1227	1217	-14		76ers8-55	East	12-70	-10.7	—	—	—

This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »

Illustration by Elias Stein.