FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Mar. 17, 2016
|
Away team
|
TOR
|
WSH
|
CHA
|
BKN
|
DEN
|
MEM
|
POR
|
PHX
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
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|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
49%
|
72%
|
30%
|
22%
|
22%
|
37%
|
13%
|
12%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
51%
|
28%
|
70%
|
78%
|
78%
|
63%
|
87%
|
88%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
IND
|
PHI
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
ATL
|
MIL
|
SA
|
UTA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1792 | 1797 |
+8
|  | Spurs57-10 | West | 68-14 | +11.5 | ✓ | 8% | 34% |
| 1790 | 1793 |
+7
|  | Warriors61-6 | West | 73-9 | +11.1 | ✓ | 92% | 37% |
| 1680 | 1698 |
+15
|  | Cavaliers48-19 | East | 59-23 | +6.5 | >99% | 94% | 14% |
| 1659 | 1674 |
+9
|  | Thunder46-22 | West | 55-27 | +6.7 | >99% | — | 5% |
| 1628 | 1634 |
-6
|  | Clippers43-24 | West | 53-29 | +4.0 | >99% | — | 2% |
| 1617 | 1622 |
+14
|  | Raptors45-21 | East | 54-28 | +4.3 | >99% | 6% | 3% |
| 1593 | 1591 |
+19
|  | Hawks39-29 | East | 47-35 | +3.4 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1572 | 1585 |
-34
|  | Celtics39-29 | East | 47-35 | +3.5 | >99% | <1% | 1% |
| 1565 | 1562 |
-6
|  | Trail Blazers35-33 | West | 43-39 | +0.9 | 97% | — | <1% |
| 1556 | 1559 |
+15
|  | Heat39-28 | East | 48-34 | +1.3 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1550 | 1557 |
-2
|  | Hornets38-29 | East | 46-36 | +2.2 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1543 | 1545 |
+4
|  | Rockets34-34 | West | 42-40 | -0.3 | 87% | — | <1% |
| 1535 | 1530 |
+5
|  | Pacers36-31 | East | 46-36 | +2.0 | 98% | <1% | <1% |
| 1536 | 1524 |
+33
|  | Jazz32-35 | West | 40-42 | +1.1 | 75% | — | <1% |
| 1506 | 1510 |
+17
|  | Wizards32-35 | East | 40-42 | -0.8 | 26% | — | <1% |
| 1491 | 1498 |
-38
|  | Grizzlies39-29 | West | 45-37 | -1.8 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1496 | 1490 |
-33
|  | Pistons34-34 | East | 42-40 | +0.5 | 46% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1488 |
+9
|  | Mavericks34-34 | West | 40-42 | -0.8 | 41% | — | <1% |
| 1454 | 1462 |
-18
|  | Bulls33-33 | East | 41-41 | -1.3 | 31% | <1% | <1% |
| 1455 | 1457 |
+4
|  | Pelicans25-42 | West | 33-49 | -2.5 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1444 | 1440 |
+1
|  | Bucks29-39 | East | 36-46 | -3.3 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1408 | 1423 |
-32
|  | Kings26-41 | West | 32-50 | -2.7 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1453 | 1422 |
+4
|  | Nuggets28-40 | West | 33-49 | -2.4 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1396 | 1407 |
+8
|  | Magic29-38 | East | 34-48 | -2.5 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1403 | 1404 |
+2
|  | Knicks28-41 | East | 33-49 | -2.7 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1372 | 1373 |
+27
|  | Timberwolves22-46 | West | 27-55 | -4.3 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1316 | 1311 |
+0
|  | Suns18-49 | West | 23-59 | -7.0 | — | — | — |
| 1325 | 1296 |
-10
|  | Nets19-48 | East | 22-60 | -6.8 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1294 | 1290 |
-18
|  | Lakers14-54 | West | 18-64 | -8.8 | — | — | — |
| 1218 | 1208 |
-5
|  | 76ers9-58 | East | 11-71 | -10.9 | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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