FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Mar. 29,2016
Away team
|
BKN
|
CHA
|
CHI
|
OKC
|
HOU
|
WSH
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities
|
21%
|
84%
|
21%
|
61%
|
20%
|
10%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
79%
|
16%
|
79%
|
39%
|
80%
|
90%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
Home team
|
ORL
|
PHI
|
IND
|
DET
|
CLE
|
GS
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1797 | 1801 |
+5
|  | Warriors66-7 | West | 73-9 | +11.0 | ✓ | >99% | 39% |
| 1785 | 1791 |
-4
|  | Spurs62-12 | West | 68-14 | +11.3 | ✓ | <1% | 30% |
| 1711 | 1719 |
+38
|  | Thunder52-22 | West | 57-25 | +7.4 | ✓ | — | 9% |
| 1659 | 1676 |
-12
|  | Cavaliers52-21 | East | 58-24 | +6.1 | ✓ | 96% | 10% |
| 1622 | 1630 |
+17
|  | Clippers46-27 | West | 52-30 | +3.9 | ✓ | — | 2% |
| 1614 | 1623 |
-18
|  | Raptors49-24 | East | 54-28 | +4.3 | ✓ | 4% | 4% |
| 1623 | 1620 |
+43
|  | Hawks45-30 | East | 49-33 | +3.9 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1581 | 1582 |
+14
|  | Heat43-30 | East | 48-34 | +1.6 | >99% | <1% | 1% |
| 1575 | 1581 |
-2
|  | Celtics43-31 | East | 48-34 | +3.3 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1565 | 1570 |
+14
|  | Hornets42-31 | East | 47-35 | +2.5 | >99% | — | 1% |
| 1565 | 1562 |
+5
|  | Trail Blazers39-36 | West | 43-39 | +0.8 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1556 | 1545 |
+11
|  | Jazz37-37 | West | 42-40 | +1.9 | 95% | — | <1% |
| 1531 | 1534 |
-8
|  | Rockets36-38 | West | 41-41 | -0.5 | 78% | — | <1% |
| 1513 | 1517 |
-24
|  | Wizards36-37 | East | 40-42 | -0.9 | 23% | — | <1% |
| 1516 | 1510 |
-6
|  | Pacers39-34 | East | 45-37 | +1.7 | 99% | — | <1% |
| 1501 | 1496 |
-3
|  | Pistons39-35 | East | 42-40 | +0.4 | 74% | — | <1% |
| 1482 | 1491 |
-18
|  | Grizzlies41-33 | West | 44-38 | -1.8 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1488 | 1486 |
-7
|  | Mavericks36-38 | West | 39-43 | -0.9 | 27% | — | <1% |
| 1425 | 1437 |
+12
|  | Kings29-45 | West | 32-50 | -2.3 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1427 | 1431 |
-48
|  | Bulls36-37 | East | 39-43 | -1.8 | 4% | — | <1% |
| 1431 | 1430 |
-26
|  | Pelicans27-46 | West | 32-50 | -3.1 | — | — | — |
| 1450 | 1423 |
-8
|  | Nuggets31-44 | West | 34-48 | -2.8 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1417 | 1412 |
-22
|  | Bucks30-44 | East | 34-48 | -3.5 | — | — | — |
| 1396 | 1409 |
+9
|  | Magic30-43 | East | 34-48 | -2.3 | — | — | — |
| 1399 | 1404 |
+14
|  | Knicks30-45 | East | 33-49 | -2.6 | — | — | — |
| 1383 | 1386 |
+16
|  | Timberwolves25-49 | West | 28-54 | -3.9 | — | — | — |
| 1344 | 1317 |
+30
|  | Nets21-52 | East | 23-59 | -6.4 | — | — | — |
| 1307 | 1304 |
-7
|  | Suns20-54 | West | 22-60 | -7.2 | — | — | — |
| 1270 | 1266 |
-14
|  | Lakers15-59 | West | 16-66 | -9.6 | — | — | — |
| 1205 | 1196 |
-1
|  | 76ers9-65 | East | 11-71 | -10.5 | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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