FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Feb. 23, 2016
|
Away team
|
NO
|
ORL
|
HOU
|
SAC
|
BKN
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
41%
|
64%
|
33%
|
38%
|
9%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
59%
|
36%
|
67%
|
62%
|
91%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
WSH
|
PHI
|
UTA
|
DEN
|
POR
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1807 | 1811 |
-31
|  | Warriors50-5 | West | 72-10 | +11.5 | >99% | 92% | 44% |
| 1768 | 1774 |
-16
|  | Spurs47-9 | West | 66-16 | +11.0 | >99% | 8% | 25% |
| 1670 | 1695 |
+5
|  | Cavaliers40-15 | East | 60-22 | +6.6 | >99% | 87% | 14% |
| 1656 | 1664 |
+15
|  | Clippers37-19 | West | 54-28 | +5.0 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1626 | 1651 |
-37
|  | Thunder40-16 | West | 55-27 | +5.8 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1617 | 1626 |
+7
|  | Raptors37-18 | East | 55-27 | +4.9 | >99% | 13% | 4% |
| 1585 | 1597 |
-8
|  | Celtics33-25 | East | 48-34 | +3.9 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1589 | 1582 |
+45
|  | Trail Blazers29-27 | West | 43-39 | +1.3 | 92% | <1% | <1% |
| 1532 | 1542 |
+11
|  | Hornets29-26 | East | 45-37 | +1.8 | 93% | <1% | <1% |
| 1535 | 1540 |
-4
|  | Grizzlies32-23 | West | 46-36 | -0.6 | 98% | <1% | <1% |
| 1527 | 1530 |
+24
|  | Heat32-24 | East | 46-36 | +0.6 | 96% | <1% | <1% |
| 1519 | 1520 |
+10
|  | Rockets28-28 | West | 40-42 | -1.2 | 53% | <1% | <1% |
| 1524 | 1518 |
+14
|  | Pacers30-26 | East | 44-38 | +1.9 | 87% | <1% | <1% |
| 1528 | 1516 |
+2
|  | Jazz27-28 | West | 41-41 | +1.0 | 66% | <1% | <1% |
| 1518 | 1515 |
-32
|  | Hawks31-27 | East | 43-39 | +1.4 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1517 | 1510 |
-3
|  | Mavericks30-27 | West | 42-40 | -0.6 | 75% | <1% | <1% |
| 1493 | 1500 |
+13
|  | Bulls29-26 | East | 43-39 | -0.3 | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| 1485 | 1492 |
+11
|  | Pelicans22-33 | West | 36-46 | -1.8 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1491 | 1482 |
+3
|  | Pistons28-29 | East | 41-41 | +0.4 | 41% | <1% | <1% |
| 1462 | 1473 |
+5
|  | Kings23-31 | West | 35-47 | -1.8 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1472 | 1468 |
+12
|  | Wizards25-29 | East | 38-44 | -1.8 | 24% | <1% | <1% |
| 1454 | 1452 |
+13
|  | Bucks24-33 | East | 36-46 | -3.1 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1424 | 1442 |
+1
|  | Magic24-30 | East | 36-46 | -1.7 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1443 | 1414 |
-20
|  | Nuggets22-34 | West | 34-48 | -2.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1380 | 1377 |
-14
|  | Knicks24-34 | East | 32-50 | -3.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1355 | 1355 |
-7
|  | Timberwolves18-39 | West | 25-57 | -4.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1303 | 1298 |
-13
|  | Suns14-43 | West | 21-61 | -7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1324 | 1287 |
+7
|  | Nets15-41 | East | 21-61 | -7.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1275 | 1270 |
-5
|  | Lakers11-47 | West | 18-64 | -9.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1261 | 1249 |
-6
|  | 76ers8-47 | East | 14-68 | -10.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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