FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Feb. 5, 2016
|
Away team
|
IND
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
BOS
|
MEM
|
SAC
|
CHI
|
MIL
|
SA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
34%
|
65%
|
37%
|
16%
|
24%
|
63%
|
64%
|
49%
|
23%
|
71%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
66%
|
35%
|
63%
|
84%
|
76%
|
37%
|
36%
|
51%
|
77%
|
29%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
ATL
|
ORL
|
CHA
|
WSH
|
CLE
|
NY
|
BKN
|
DEN
|
UTA
|
DAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1833 | 1836 |
+9
|  | Warriors45-4 | West | 72-10 | +12.4 | >99% | 92% | 50% |
| 1764 | 1770 |
-12
|  | Spurs41-8 | West | 66-16 | +11.2 | >99% | 8% | 22% |
| 1663 | 1690 |
+13
|  | Cavaliers35-13 | East | 60-22 | +6.5 | >99% | 85% | 12% |
| 1653 | 1682 |
+7
|  | Thunder38-13 | West | 57-25 | +6.5 | >99% | <1% | 5% |
| 1628 | 1638 |
-14
|  | Clippers32-17 | West | 53-29 | +4.1 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1608 | 1618 |
-7
|  | Raptors34-16 | East | 55-27 | +4.5 | >99% | 14% | 3% |
| 1579 | 1592 |
+9
|  | Celtics29-22 | East | 48-34 | +3.8 | 97% | <1% | 2% |
| 1543 | 1552 |
+20
|  | Grizzlies29-20 | West | 47-35 | -0.2 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1541 | 1541 |
+4
|  | Rockets27-25 | West | 42-40 | -0.7 | 82% | <1% | <1% |
| 1535 | 1539 |
-5
|  | Bulls27-21 | East | 46-36 | +0.8 | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 1543 | 1538 |
+11
|  | Hawks29-22 | East | 45-37 | +1.9 | 91% | <1% | <1% |
| 1539 | 1527 |
+4
|  | Pacers26-23 | East | 44-38 | +2.4 | 79% | <1% | <1% |
| 1529 | 1521 |
-14
|  | Mavericks28-24 | West | 43-39 | -0.3 | 88% | <1% | <1% |
| 1526 | 1519 |
-7
|  | Pistons27-24 | East | 44-38 | +1.5 | 76% | <1% | <1% |
| 1509 | 1512 |
+20
|  | Heat28-22 | East | 44-38 | +0.1 | 82% | <1% | <1% |
| 1518 | 1501 |
+11
|  | Jazz23-25 | West | 39-43 | +0.5 | 59% | <1% | <1% |
| 1484 | 1499 |
+15
|  | Hornets24-25 | East | 42-40 | +0.7 | 59% | <1% | <1% |
| 1504 | 1496 |
+8
|  | Trail Blazers24-27 | West | 38-44 | -0.8 | 40% | <1% | <1% |
| 1472 | 1484 |
-8
|  | Kings21-28 | West | 36-46 | -1.4 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 1463 | 1472 |
-29
|  | Pelicans18-31 | West | 34-48 | -2.1 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1464 | 1456 |
+0
|  | Wizards21-26 | East | 37-45 | -2.2 | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 1409 | 1431 |
+2
|  | Magic21-27 | East | 35-47 | -2.1 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1432 | 1430 |
-16
|  | Bucks20-31 | East | 34-48 | -3.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1413 | 1412 |
-7
|  | Knicks23-29 | East | 35-47 | -2.3 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 1433 | 1402 |
+18
|  | Nuggets19-31 | West | 33-49 | -3.1 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1351 | 1353 |
+13
|  | Timberwolves15-36 | West | 24-58 | -4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1330 | 1326 |
-23
|  | Suns14-37 | West | 23-59 | -6.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1283 | 1277 |
+6
|  | Lakers11-41 | West | 18-64 | -9.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1321 | 1277 |
-14
|  | Nets12-38 | East | 20-62 | -7.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1270 | 1259 |
-14
|  | 76ers7-42 | East | 15-67 | -9.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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