Thursday, April 14, 2016

Vegas impact: Comparing Warriors to 95-96 Bulls

The 95-96 Chicago Bulls and 2015-16 Golden State Warriors made similar marks on the betting market. Getty Images
The debate over who would win a series between this year's Golden State Warriors and 1995-96 Chicago Bulls will not be decided by a mythical point spread. But looking back at the point spreads does suggest that the betting market had nearly equal respect for the two winningest teams in NBA history.
To wit:
  • The '95-96 Bulls (72-10) were favored by an average of 9.83 points per game, while the Warriors (73-9) were favored by an average of 10.21 points per game.
  • The Bulls were underdogs three times: at San Antonio, at Utah and at Seattle, all in November. The Warriors were underdogs four times: twice at San Antonio, once at Cleveland and once at Houston.
  • The most the Bulls were favored by was 19.5 points over Philadelphia, one of the worst teams in the league that year. The most the Warriors were favored this season was 21.5 points over Philadelphia, one of the worst teams in the league that year.
  • The Bulls went 46-33-1 against the spread during the regular season. (Two games had no line, according to game archives at sports betting website Covers.com. The Warriors went 45-35-2 against the spread during the regular season.
Like this year's record-setting Warriors team, the 1995-96 Bulls didn't start the season as the consensus betting favorites to win the title.
It was Michael Jordan's first full season back in the NBA, after his brief flirtation with baseball. The Houston Rockets, with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, were coming off back-to-back championships, and the Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks were serious contenders. After being eliminated by the Orlando Magic the previous postseason, the Bulls were considered to be simply in the mix. That perception changed quickly.
The Bulls were underdogs three times in November but would be favored in every game the rest of the way, including throughout the playoffs. They went 39-3 through January and didn't lose at home until April. They were dominant, and the betting public flocked to them.
"It was an event every time they played," said longtime Las Vegas bookmaker Hugh Citron.
During a stretch in January, Chicago was a double-digit favorite in six straight games. Night after night, Las Vegas books found themselves rooting against Jordan. By the time the playoffs arrived, though, the Bulls had emerged as such huge favorites in almost every series that the betting public began shying away from paying the big price and began to back the underdogs at long odds.
"The price was so high it was like a boxing match," veteran Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews said. "Money came in on the 'dog."
Chuck Esposito, a Chicago native, was a sportsbook manager at the Las Vegas Hilton at the time and remembered calling his boss to celebrate the Bulls' victory over the Seattle SuperSonics in the NBA finals.
"I remember as soon as the Bulls won calling [Hilton sportsbook director] Art [Manteris] and saying the Bulls won and we won," recalled Esposito, who now runs the book at Sunset Station. "It was extra special for me since I'm from Chicago. In our business, [there is] no favorite team ... but that year I got to root for the Bulls."

Golden State Warriors' losses in 2015-16

Line archive according to Covers.com
DateScoreSpread
April 5, 2016Minnesota 124, Golden State 117 (2OT)Warriors -14
April 1, 2016Boston 109, Golden State 106Warriors -11.5
March 19, 2016San Antonio 87, Golden State 79Spurs -4.5
March 6, 2016L.A. Lakers 112, Golden State 95Warriors -17.5
Feb. 19, 2016Portland 137, Golden State 105Warriors -8
Jan. 16, 2016Detroit 113, Golden State 95Warriors -7
Jan. 13, 2016Denver 112, Golden State 110Warriors -9.5
Dec. 30, 2015Dallas 114, Golden State 91Warriors -3.5
Dec. 12, 2015Milwaukee 108, Golde State 98Warriors -9.5

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