FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Apr. 6, 2016
|
Away team
|
BKN
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHA
|
NO
|
HOU
|
OKC
|
LAC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
15%
|
58%
|
36%
|
54%
|
16%
|
42%
|
54%
|
83%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
85%
|
42%
|
64%
|
46%
|
84%
|
58%
|
46%
|
17%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
WSH
|
IND
|
ORL
|
NY
|
BOS
|
DAL
|
POR
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1791 | 1797 |
+6
|  | Spurs65-12 | West | 68-14 | +11.1 | ✓ | 4% | 38% |
| 1766 | 1770 |
-33
|  | Warriors69-9 | West | 72-10 | +10.5 | ✓ | 96% | 32% |
| 1692 | 1701 |
-8
|  | Thunder54-25 | West | 56-26 | +7.2 | ✓ | — | 7% |
| 1652 | 1668 |
+8
|  | Cavaliers56-23 | East | 58-24 | +6.2 | ✓ | 97% | 10% |
| 1636 | 1645 |
+15
|  | Clippers50-28 | West | 53-29 | +4.3 | ✓ | — | 2% |
| 1627 | 1636 |
+13
|  | Raptors52-25 | East | 56-26 | +4.5 | ✓ | 3% | 4% |
| 1612 | 1609 |
-11
|  | Hawks46-32 | East | 48-34 | +3.7 | ✓ | — | 2% |
| 1588 | 1595 |
+13
|  | Celtics46-32 | East | 49-33 | +3.4 | ✓ | — | 1% |
| 1592 | 1589 |
+27
|  | Trail Blazers43-37 | West | 45-37 | +1.0 | ✓ | — | <1% |
| 1576 | 1579 |
-3
|  | Heat45-32 | East | 48-34 | +1.5 | ✓ | — | 1% |
| 1572 | 1578 |
+4
|  | Hornets45-33 | East | 47-35 | +2.6 | ✓ | — | 1% |
| 1544 | 1547 |
-2
|  | Rockets38-40 | West | 41-41 | -0.3 | 45% | — | <1% |
| 1559 | 1546 |
+1
|  | Jazz39-39 | West | 42-40 | +2.0 | 85% | — | <1% |
| 1517 | 1516 |
+30
|  | Mavericks40-38 | West | 41-41 | -0.6 | 70% | — | <1% |
| 1509 | 1514 |
-2
|  | Wizards38-40 | East | 40-42 | -0.7 | 4% | — | <1% |
| 1505 | 1501 |
-5
|  | Pistons42-37 | East | 43-39 | +0.4 | 96% | — | <1% |
| 1508 | 1501 |
+0
|  | Pacers42-36 | East | 44-38 | +1.5 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1468 | 1475 |
-16
|  | Grizzlies42-36 | West | 43-39 | -2.0 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1434 | 1446 |
+9
|  | Kings31-47 | West | 33-49 | -2.1 | — | — | — |
| 1436 | 1443 |
+26
|  | Magic33-45 | East | 35-47 | -1.5 | — | — | — |
| 1438 | 1442 |
+2
|  | Bulls39-39 | East | 41-41 | -1.6 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1428 | 1425 |
-5
|  | Pelicans29-49 | West | 32-50 | -2.9 | — | — | — |
| 1430 | 1402 |
-21
|  | Nuggets32-47 | West | 33-49 | -3.1 | — | — | — |
| 1405 | 1400 |
-12
|  | Bucks32-46 | East | 34-48 | -4.0 | — | — | — |
| 1389 | 1392 |
+7
|  | Timberwolves26-52 | West | 28-54 | -4.0 | — | — | — |
| 1386 | 1386 |
-18
|  | Knicks31-48 | East | 32-50 | -2.8 | — | — | — |
| 1289 | 1285 |
-18
|  | Suns20-58 | West | 21-61 | -7.4 | — | — | — |
| 1305 | 1285 |
-24
|  | Nets21-57 | East | 22-60 | -7.2 | — | — | — |
| 1270 | 1267 |
+1
|  | Lakers16-62 | West | 17-65 | -9.5 | — | — | — |
| 1215 | 1209 |
+16
|  | 76ers10-68 | East | 11-71 | -10.2 | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
No comments:
Post a Comment