FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Apr. 16,2016
|
Away team
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BOS
|
DAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
21%
|
13%
|
32%
|
18%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
79%
|
87%
|
68%
|
82%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
TOR
|
GS
|
ATL
|
OKC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1788 | 1793 |
+23
|  | Warriors | West | +10.8 | 95% | 81% | 50% | 42% |
| 1767 | 1773 |
-25
|  | Spurs | West | +10.6 | 98% | 73% | 34% | 29% |
| 1642 | 1656 |
-12
|  | Cavaliers | East | +6.0 | 86% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| 1683 | 1692 |
-9
|  | Thunder | West | +7.3 | 87% | 26% | 9% | 6% |
| 1633 | 1643 |
+7
|  | Raptors | East | +4.5 | 82% | 53% | 25% | 6% |
| 1635 | 1645 |
+0
|  | Clippers | West | +4.3 | 69% | 13% | 5% | 3% |
| 1606 | 1602 |
-6
|  | Hawks | East | +3.6 | 61% | 24% | 13% | 2% |
| 1580 | 1586 |
+7
|  | Heat | East | +1.6 | 51% | 20% | 8% | 1% |
| 1585 | 1593 |
+15
|  | Hornets | East | +2.7 | 49% | 20% | 9% | 1% |
| 1574 | 1578 |
-17
|  | Celtics | East | +3.2 | 39% | 14% | 7% | <1% |
| 1586 | 1583 |
-6
|  | Trail Blazers | West | +0.8 | 31% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 1519 | 1512 |
+11
|  | Pacers | East | +1.7 | 18% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 1550 | 1559 |
+12
|  | Rockets | West | +0.2 | 5% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 1515 | 1512 |
+11
|  | Pistons | East | +0.6 | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 1531 | 1530 |
+14
|  | Mavericks | West | -0.3 | 13% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1453 | 1461 |
-14
|  | Grizzlies | West | -2.2 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1392 | 1386 |
-14
|  | Bucks | East | -4.2 | — | — | — | — |
| 1411 | 1410 |
+18
|  | Timberwolves | West | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 1530 | 1534 |
+20
|  | Wizards | East | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 1427 | 1396 |
-6
|  | Nuggets | West | -3.1 | — | — | — | — |
| 1384 | 1384 |
-2
|  | Knicks | East | -2.7 | — | — | — | — |
| 1289 | 1270 |
-14
|  | Nets | East | -7.4 | — | — | — | — |
| 1454 | 1457 |
+15
|  | Bulls | East | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 1539 | 1526 |
-20
|  | Jazz | West | +1.8 | — | — | — | — |
| 1275 | 1272 |
+5
|  | Lakers | West | -9.6 | — | — | — | — |
| 1203 | 1198 |
-11
|  | 76ers | East | -10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| 1374 | 1375 |
-49
|  | Pelicans | West | -3.8 | — | — | — | — |
| 1425 | 1436 |
-10
|  | Kings | West | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| 1437 | 1443 |
+0
|  | Magic | East | -1.6 | — | — | — | — |
| 1354 | 1344 |
+59
|  | Suns | West | -6.7 | — | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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