2016-17 NBA Predictions

Based on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game.

More NBA: CARMELO projections | Every team’s Elo history

Games on Jan. 12, 2017

Win probabilityPoint spread

Away team		IND		NO		CHI		LAL		DAL		DET		X		X		X		X		X		X		X		X
Pre-game win probabilities		61%		62%		52%		8%		52%		8%		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-
		39%		38%		48%		92%		48%		92%		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-
Home team		DEN		BKN		NY		SA		PHX		GS		X		X		X		X		X		X		X		X
				live		live		live

Team-by-team forecast

Forecast from

1743	1791	-20		Warriors33-6	West	67-15	+12.2	>99%	73%	44%
1721	1711	+5		Spurs30-8	West	63-19	+8.6	>99%	21%	17%
1655	1671	+2		Rockets31-10	West	60-22	+7.0	>99%	5%	8%
1625	1640	-8		Raptors25-13	East	56-26	+6.9	>99%	41%	9%
1640	1625	-18		Cavaliers28-10	East	56-26	+5.5	>99%	48%	7%
1586	1598	-1		Jazz24-16	West	50-32	+3.6	>99%	<1%	3%
1595	1594	+13		Clippers27-14	West	50-32	+3.6	>99%	<1%	2%
1593	1592	+4		Celtics24-15	East	51-31	+3.4	>99%	9%	3%
1611	1585	+24		Thunder24-16	West	48-34	+1.8	97%	<1%	2%
1555	1562	+26		Grizzlies24-17	West	47-35	+0.8	96%	<1%	<1%
1524	1526	+33		Trail Blazers18-23	West	40-42	-0.8	65%	<1%	<1%
1533	1524	-10		Hornets20-19	East	43-39	+1.1	83%	<1%	<1%
1527	1520	-14		Bucks19-18	East	43-39	+1.2	81%	<1%	<1%
1531	1504	+36		Hawks22-16	East	45-37	+0.2	91%	<1%	<1%
1509	1487	+16		Wizards19-19	East	40-42	-0.9	64%	<1%	<1%
1475	1483	-9		Bulls19-20	East	40-42	-0.4	59%	<1%	<1%
1443	1475	+13		Timberwolves13-26	West	32-50	-1.6	4%	<1%	<1%
1495	1471	-19		Pacers20-19	East	39-43	-1.6	56%	<1%	<1%
1477	1460	+4		Pistons18-22	East	38-44	-0.7	41%	<1%	<1%
1447	1449	-6		Kings16-22	West	35-47	-2.7	14%	<1%	<1%
1432	1448	+4		Pelicans15-24	West	32-50	-3.0	7%	<1%	<1%
1451	1447	+10		Nuggets15-23	West	35-47	-2.1	15%	<1%	<1%
1409	1418	-15		Knicks17-22	East	34-48	-3.3	18%	<1%	<1%
1401	1406	-18		Magic16-24	East	32-50	-4.5	6%	<1%	<1%
1404	1397	-34		Mavericks11-27	West	28-54	-4.5	1%	<1%	<1%
1383	1393	+3		Lakers15-27	West	29-53	-4.8	2%	<1%	<1%
1373	1381	+11		Suns12-26	West	28-54	-5.3	<1%	<1%	<1%
1415	1364	-20		Heat11-29	East	26-56	-4.3	<1%	<1%	<1%
1315	1353	+15		76ers11-25	East	25-57	-6.4	<1%	<1%	<1%
1274	1266	-27		Nets8-29	East	19-63	-8.9	<1%	<1%	<1%

How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team's quality based on both its game results and its roster. Full methodology »
By Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Nate Silver. Additional contributions from Neil Paine and Will Strimling. Illustration by Elias Stein.