FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Feb. 11,2016
Away team
|
NO
|
WSH
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities
|
12%
|
40%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
88%
|
60%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
Home team
|
OKC
|
MIL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1838 | 1842 |
+6
|  | Warriors48-4 | West | 73-9 | +12.3 | >99% | 90% | 50% |
| 1784 | 1790 |
+20
|  | Spurs45-8 | West | 67-15 | +11.6 | >99% | 10% | 25% |
| 1664 | 1690 |
+0
|  | Cavaliers38-14 | East | 60-22 | +6.5 | >99% | 86% | 11% |
| 1656 | 1684 |
+1
|  | Thunder39-14 | West | 57-25 | +6.5 | >99% | <1% | 5% |
| 1640 | 1649 |
+11
|  | Clippers35-18 | West | 54-28 | +4.3 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1609 | 1619 |
+9
|  | Raptors35-17 | East | 54-28 | +4.5 | >99% | 13% | 3% |
| 1591 | 1605 |
+13
|  | Celtics32-23 | East | 49-33 | +4.1 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1550 | 1546 |
+8
|  | Hawks31-24 | East | 46-36 | +2.2 | 95% | <1% | <1% |
| 1540 | 1545 |
-8
|  | Grizzlies31-22 | West | 46-36 | -0.4 | 98% | <1% | <1% |
| 1545 | 1537 |
+33
|  | Trail Blazers27-27 | West | 41-41 | +0.3 | 74% | <1% | <1% |
| 1520 | 1532 |
+33
|  | Hornets27-26 | East | 44-38 | +1.5 | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 1529 | 1515 |
+14
|  | Jazz26-26 | West | 41-41 | +0.8 | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| 1521 | 1513 |
-7
|  | Mavericks29-26 | West | 42-40 | -0.6 | 83% | <1% | <1% |
| 1509 | 1510 |
-26
|  | Rockets27-28 | West | 40-42 | -1.4 | 52% | <1% | <1% |
| 1501 | 1505 |
-7
|  | Heat29-24 | East | 44-38 | -0.1 | 88% | <1% | <1% |
| 1513 | 1504 |
-23
|  | Pacers28-25 | East | 43-39 | +1.6 | 77% | <1% | <1% |
| 1482 | 1487 |
-51
|  | Bulls27-25 | East | 42-40 | -0.5 | 62% | <1% | <1% |
| 1478 | 1485 |
+1
|  | Pelicans20-32 | West | 35-47 | -1.7 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1488 | 1479 |
-36
|  | Pistons27-27 | East | 41-41 | +0.4 | 50% | <1% | <1% |
| 1457 | 1468 |
-16
|  | Kings22-31 | West | 35-47 | -1.9 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 1469 | 1462 |
+6
|  | Wizards23-27 | East | 38-44 | -2.0 | 28% | <1% | <1% |
| 1421 | 1442 |
+11
|  | Magic23-29 | East | 36-46 | -1.7 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 1463 | 1434 |
+32
|  | Nuggets22-32 | West | 35-47 | -2.3 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 1435 | 1433 |
+3
|  | Bucks21-32 | East | 35-47 | -3.5 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1391 | 1391 |
-26
|  | Knicks23-32 | East | 33-49 | -2.8 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1361 | 1362 |
+9
|  | Timberwolves17-37 | West | 25-57 | -4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1317 | 1311 |
-20
|  | Suns14-40 | West | 22-60 | -6.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1320 | 1280 |
+3
|  | Nets14-40 | East | 21-61 | -7.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1281 | 1275 |
+10
|  | Lakers11-44 | West | 18-64 | -9.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1266 | 1255 |
-4
|  | 76ers8-45 | East | 15-67 | -9.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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