FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Mar. 22, 2016
|
Away team
|
CHA
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
MEM
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
68%
|
20%
|
52%
|
62%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
32%
|
80%
|
48%
|
38%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
BKN
|
OKC
|
NO
|
LAL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1792 | 1796 |
+5
|  | Warriors63-7 | West | 73-9 | +11.1 | ✓ | 97% | 39% |
| 1791 | 1795 |
+2
|  | Spurs59-11 | West | 68-14 | +11.4 | ✓ | 3% | 35% |
| 1670 | 1688 |
-9
|  | Cavaliers50-20 | East | 59-23 | +6.4 | ✓ | 87% | 12% |
| 1667 | 1682 |
+24
|  | Thunder48-22 | West | 56-26 | +6.8 | ✓ | — | 4% |
| 1634 | 1641 |
+34
|  | Raptors48-21 | East | 56-26 | +4.5 | >99% | 13% | 4% |
| 1608 | 1613 |
-6
|  | Clippers43-26 | West | 51-31 | +3.7 | >99% | — | 1% |
| 1573 | 1583 |
-25
|  | Celtics41-30 | East | 47-35 | +3.5 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1581 | 1578 |
-7
|  | Hawks41-30 | East | 47-35 | +3.2 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1568 | 1568 |
+9
|  | Heat40-29 | East | 48-34 | +1.6 | >99% | <1% | 1% |
| 1559 | 1557 |
-5
|  | Trail Blazers36-35 | West | 43-39 | +0.9 | 98% | — | <1% |
| 1550 | 1556 |
+2
|  | Hornets40-30 | East | 47-35 | +2.2 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1539 | 1542 |
-22
|  | Rockets35-35 | West | 42-40 | -0.5 | 83% | — | <1% |
| 1537 | 1541 |
+41
|  | Wizards35-35 | East | 42-40 | -0.4 | 42% | — | <1% |
| 1544 | 1534 |
+10
|  | Jazz34-36 | West | 41-41 | +1.5 | 79% | — | <1% |
| 1522 | 1516 |
-7
|  | Pacers37-33 | East | 45-37 | +1.8 | 88% | — | <1% |
| 1501 | 1509 |
-4
|  | Grizzlies41-30 | West | 45-37 | -1.7 | >99% | — | <1% |
| 1505 | 1499 |
+2
|  | Pistons37-34 | East | 42-40 | +0.5 | 39% | — | <1% |
| 1496 | 1493 |
+4
|  | Mavericks35-35 | West | 40-42 | -0.8 | 40% | — | <1% |
| 1472 | 1478 |
+6
|  | Bulls36-33 | East | 42-40 | -1.0 | 33% | — | <1% |
| 1456 | 1456 |
+15
|  | Pelicans26-43 | West | 33-49 | -2.6 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1440 | 1434 |
-21
|  | Bucks30-41 | East | 35-47 | -3.3 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1459 | 1430 |
+3
|  | Nuggets29-42 | West | 34-48 | -2.5 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1413 | 1425 |
-5
|  | Kings27-43 | West | 32-50 | -2.6 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1389 | 1399 |
-5
|  | Magic29-41 | East | 34-48 | -2.5 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1386 | 1390 |
-16
|  | Knicks28-43 | East | 32-50 | -2.9 | <1% | — | <1% |
| 1369 | 1370 |
+12
|  | Timberwolves22-48 | West | 26-56 | -4.2 | — | — | — |
| 1314 | 1311 |
+0
|  | Suns19-51 | West | 23-59 | -7.2 | — | — | — |
| 1316 | 1287 |
-2
|  | Nets19-50 | East | 22-60 | -7.0 | — | — | — |
| 1285 | 1280 |
-19
|  | Lakers14-55 | West | 17-65 | -9.0 | — | — | — |
| 1206 | 1198 |
-17
|  | 76ers9-62 | East | 11-71 | -11.0 | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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