FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Mar. 3,2016
Away team
|
PHX
|
SA
|
SAC
|
OKC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Pre-game win probabilities
|
12%
|
79%
|
24%
|
14%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
88%
|
21%
|
76%
|
86%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
Home team
|
MIA
|
NO
|
DAL
|
GS
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1819 | 1825 |
+10
|  | Warriors54-5 | West | 73-9 | +11.6 | ✓ | 93% | 47% |
| 1790 | 1797 |
+18
|  | Spurs51-9 | West | 68-14 | +11.6 | ✓ | 7% | 29% |
| 1654 | 1677 |
-21
|  | Cavaliers42-17 | East | 59-23 | +6.1 | >99% | 84% | 10% |
| 1652 | 1657 |
+14
|  | Clippers40-20 | West | 54-28 | +4.6 | >99% | <1% | 2% |
| 1632 | 1654 |
-7
|  | Thunder42-19 | West | 54-28 | +6.0 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1614 | 1620 |
-8
|  | Raptors40-19 | East | 55-27 | +4.5 | >99% | 16% | 3% |
| 1609 | 1617 |
+20
|  | Celtics37-25 | East | 50-32 | +4.3 | >99% | <1% | 3% |
| 1588 | 1585 |
+1
|  | Trail Blazers33-29 | West | 44-38 | +1.2 | 98% | <1% | <1% |
| 1545 | 1551 |
+9
|  | Grizzlies36-24 | West | 47-35 | -0.4 | >99% | <1% | <1% |
| 1539 | 1548 |
+10
|  | Hornets32-28 | East | 45-37 | +2.1 | 95% | <1% | <1% |
| 1539 | 1544 |
+18
|  | Heat34-26 | East | 47-35 | +1.0 | 98% | <1% | <1% |
| 1533 | 1530 |
+15
|  | Hawks33-28 | East | 44-38 | +1.9 | 83% | <1% | <1% |
| 1527 | 1528 |
+12
|  | Rockets30-31 | West | 41-41 | -0.9 | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| 1521 | 1515 |
+15
|  | Mavericks33-28 | West | 42-40 | -0.4 | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 1518 | 1512 |
+27
|  | Pistons31-30 | East | 42-40 | +1.1 | 64% | <1% | <1% |
| 1510 | 1509 |
+32
|  | Wizards30-30 | East | 41-41 | -0.9 | 51% | <1% | <1% |
| 1515 | 1508 |
-12
|  | Pacers32-29 | East | 43-39 | +1.8 | 78% | <1% | <1% |
| 1505 | 1490 |
-29
|  | Jazz28-32 | West | 39-43 | +0.3 | 40% | <1% | <1% |
| 1468 | 1474 |
-6
|  | Pelicans23-36 | West | 34-48 | -2.2 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1461 | 1468 |
-36
|  | Bulls30-30 | East | 40-42 | -1.2 | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 1444 | 1456 |
-21
|  | Kings24-35 | West | 34-48 | -2.2 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 1426 | 1442 |
-6
|  | Magic27-33 | East | 36-46 | -1.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1438 | 1436 |
-16
|  | Bucks25-36 | East | 35-47 | -3.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1442 | 1416 |
-11
|  | Nuggets24-37 | West | 33-49 | -2.6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1365 | 1360 |
-15
|  | Knicks25-37 | East | 31-51 | -3.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1349 | 1351 |
-2
|  | Timberwolves19-42 | West | 25-57 | -4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1338 | 1306 |
+20
|  | Nets17-44 | East | 23-59 | -6.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1296 | 1289 |
-9
|  | Suns15-45 | West | 21-61 | -7.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1270 | 1265 |
-3
|  | Lakers12-50 | West | 17-65 | -9.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1232 | 1223 |
-18
|  | 76ers8-53 | East | 12-70 | -10.7 | — | — | — |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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