FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast combines an Elo-based model
with our CARMELO player projections to calculate each team’s “CARM-Elo”
rating and its chances of advancing to the playoffs (and beyond). See more: CARMELO projections | Complete NBA history
Games on Jan. 16, 2016
|
Away team
|
MIL
|
BKN
|
BOS
|
GS
|
POR
|
NY
|
LAL
|
SAC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
Pre-game win probabilities
|
27%
|
13%
|
42%
|
74%
|
69%
|
27%
|
15%
|
16%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
|
73%
|
87%
|
58%
|
26%
|
31%
|
73%
|
85%
|
84%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Home team
|
CHA
|
ATL
|
WSH
|
DET
|
PHI
|
MEM
|
UTA
|
LAC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team-By-Team Forecast
Forecast from
| 1797 | 1797 |
-2
|  | Warriors37-3 | West | 70-12 | +11.0 | >99% | 73% | 36% |
| 1771 | 1780 |
+13
|  | Spurs35-6 | West | 66-16 | +11.3 | >99% | 27% | 27% |
| 1682 | 1722 |
+14
|  | Cavaliers28-10 | East | 61-21 | +7.6 | >99% | 94% | 19% |
| 1637 | 1674 |
+0
|  | Thunder29-12 | West | 56-26 | +6.5 | >99% | <1% | 5% |
| 1649 | 1661 |
+10
|  | Clippers26-13 | West | 54-28 | +4.7 | >99% | <1% | 4% |
| 1581 | 1594 |
+8
|  | Raptors25-15 | East | 52-30 | +3.9 | 98% | 5% | 3% |
| 1533 | 1547 |
-1
|  | Celtics21-19 | East | 44-38 | +2.5 | 76% | <1% | 1% |
| 1554 | 1543 |
+4
|  | Mavericks23-18 | West | 45-37 | +0.7 | 93% | <1% | <1% |
| 1536 | 1535 |
+14
|  | Rockets21-20 | West | 41-41 | -0.7 | 74% | <1% | <1% |
| 1541 | 1528 |
-28
|  | Pacers22-18 | East | 45-37 | +2.3 | 76% | <1% | <1% |
| 1526 | 1520 |
-15
|  | Hawks23-17 | East | 45-37 | +0.9 | 80% | <1% | <1% |
| 1509 | 1519 |
-13
|  | Grizzlies22-19 | West | 44-38 | -1.0 | 87% | <1% | <1% |
| 1522 | 1518 |
-46
|  | Bulls23-16 | East | 44-38 | +0.3 | 69% | <1% | <1% |
| 1514 | 1515 |
-7
|  | Heat23-17 | East | 44-38 | +0.6 | 72% | <1% | <1% |
| 1516 | 1511 |
+58
|  | Wizards19-19 | East | 42-40 | -0.4 | 63% | <1% | <1% |
| 1518 | 1507 |
-8
|  | Pistons21-18 | East | 43-39 | +1.0 | 61% | <1% | <1% |
| 1510 | 1500 |
+27
|  | Trail Blazers18-24 | West | 38-44 | -0.6 | 48% | <1% | <1% |
| 1478 | 1496 |
+4
|  | Hornets18-21 | East | 40-42 | +0.8 | 43% | <1% | <1% |
| 1468 | 1480 |
+13
|  | Pelicans13-26 | West | 35-47 | -1.8 | 20% | <1% | <1% |
| 1490 | 1479 |
+2
|  | Jazz17-22 | West | 38-44 | -0.4 | 51% | <1% | <1% |
| 1450 | 1475 |
-15
|  | Magic20-19 | East | 39-43 | -0.8 | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| 1456 | 1472 |
-17
|  | Kings16-23 | West | 35-47 | -1.9 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 1446 | 1445 |
+7
|  | Knicks20-21 | East | 38-44 | -1.3 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 1428 | 1419 |
+6
|  | Bucks17-25 | East | 34-48 | -4.0 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 1418 | 1384 |
+9
|  | Nuggets15-25 | West | 31-51 | -3.9 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 1382 | 1380 |
-9
|  | Suns13-28 | West | 28-54 | -4.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1323 | 1324 |
-11
|  | Timberwolves12-29 | West | 23-59 | -6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1322 | 1310 |
-4
|  | Lakers9-32 | West | 20-62 | -8.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1351 | 1293 |
-6
|  | Nets11-29 | East | 22-60 | -7.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1234 | 1222 |
-8
|  | 76ers4-37 | East | 13-69 | -11.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts
for travel distance, fatigue and altitude. It updates after each game. Methodology »
Illustration by Elias Stein.
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